Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
